The Most Wonderful Time of the Year: The Conference Finals
Recap
Basketball is not that hard to figure out mostly because basketball is a sport not left up to chance, barring injuries to key players. Look at hockey, football, and baseball; the best team does not necessarily win. In baseball, the World Series Champion Saint Louis Cardinals had the worst record of any playoff team, but won it all. The Superbowl Champion New York [football] Giants were one botched wide open touchdown pass away from missing the playoffs entirely. In this year's Stanley Cup Final, [my] L.A. Kings is an 8-seed while their opponent, the New Jersey Devils, is a 6-seed. In the NBA, the best team wins. Period. There are anomalies every year in which an underdog team wins either because of a matchup problem (see 2007 first round matchup between Golden State and Dallas) or devastating injuries to a key player or players (see 2012 Philadelphia 76ers).
Despite basketball being less probabilistic than the other sports, you still have to watch. There were no surprises except for the customary 1 matchup that always does not go the way I envisioned. That is why so many of us love sports; there is always room for the unexpected, unlike most television programs, plays, et cetera. I thought surely the Sixers were going be gone in a couple games even though it was a best of 7 series. My guess is that Boston just could not get over their opponent, a team they knew they would not lose to, which probably aged Doc by about 12 years. The Pacers were idiots. They were in such a great position and what did they do? They awakened a sleeping giant. They starting pounding their chest talking about how they do not get respected and started talking shit starting with their head coach before the series started. They grasped home court after 2 games and was up 2-1 with Bosh being injured, a great opportunity. Then The King and The Prince were awakened (LeBron's 40-18-9-2-2 in game 4 was just breathtaking). If Bosh were healthy, that thing would have ended in 5 as predicted, if not less. Lesson? Just win quietly like the Mavs did last year, or the Spurs every year.
I almost forgot about the L.A. teams since they were dispatched a long time ago. I had to reassure myself that this was the same round. Both L.A. teams were simply outmatched; neither of them had no shot. The Lakers have to blow it up. They had three straight finals appearances winning 2 before regressing to a back-to-back drubbing in the second round. They got all they could out of this core group. The Clippers need backcourt help. Blake with hopefully develop, but they were embarrassed by Popovich.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) San Antonio v. (2) Oklahoma City
A true heavyweight match up. Neither of these teams are one of those "team of destiny" teams that made an improbable run. Neither of these teams benefitted from an injury to a key player on the opposing team. Neither of these teams benefitted from a crappy conference (the Clippers, Jazz, Lakers, and Mavericks were not as bad as both of these teams made them look). These are two teams that totally deserve to be in this spot. San Antonio is like an aging Muhammad Ali. The only question is will they be the wily Ali versus George Foreman or will they be the washed up Ali versus the young Larry Holmes. OKC is like a young Mike Tyson when he was champ at the young age of 20. When Mike was in in hey, everyone thought it was the beginning of the greatest reign ever (only now we know the end game). Almost surely, OKC will not end up like Tyson as they have a strong foundation of young stars and complimentary players; but this is the beginning of a reign of terror for opposing teams in the Western Conference, something I knew after last year's loss to Dallas in the Conference Finals.
Surely San Antonio is not washed up at all. Their featured player, Tony Parker, is 30 and in the middle-end of his prime while Manu is 34 and Duncan 36. Nonetheless, they are surrounded by young solid role players that know their roles and execute them to near perfection. Both teams are structured similarly with 3 main players and even having one of their main players come off the bench (Manu and James Harden with is old man, but young legged game). Durant has an advantage, but that's every game. While Parker probably cannot hold Westbrook alone, he will be backed up by excellent team position defense while they cancel each other out offensively. OKC is deeper in the front court, but I'm interested to see how they react to Matt Bonner on the outside which takes Ibaka out of the paint area. I can't wait for this matchup! This may be the best NBA Finals Western Conference Final Matchup since Lakers-Kings in 2003 that went into overtime in game 7 (the winner of this matchup would have killed the waiting Nets, which the Lakers ended up doing). To make this harder, either team can win on the road almost as easily as they can win at home and they are not far apart at all (like L.A. and Sacramento). SA has the advantage with Coach Pop........Ummmmmm......The one thing I don't like about OKC is that they seem to fall into these lulls when their jumpers are not falling, lulls that Dallas and LA were not capable of taking advantage of, while San Antonio executes much better in the half court. I am going to give a slight edge to San Antonio in 7 games...
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Heat v. (4) Celtics
This is too bad. It probably should have been Heat-Bulls. Nonetheless the Celtics managed to sneak through. Everyone is quick to think the Celtics are going to get thrashed due to their showing against the Sixers. Remember during their title run in 2008, they needed 7 games against the 8-seeded Hawks. Not saying they will win it all, but don't look at the last series. Familiarity will also help Boston, but they are hurt with Avery Bradley being injured. His on ball defense has to probably be the best in the league, seriously. He would have given D-Wade fits and just ate up Chalmers, who is a below average point guard to me. That would have forced LeBron to take on ball handling duties. I feel bad for Pierce who has to go against LeBron, who he can't handle at all simply because nobody can! If the Heat are making jumpers all series as Boston will lock down the paint defensively, then this will be a quick series even sans Bosh. However, they are not going to make them all series. We are going to see more of the same East Coast basketball with scores in the 70's late in the fourth quarter. This is a little hard. Both teams have a hard time scoring in the half court smoothly. Bosh looks like he won't be back as he has no timetable set for his return. Bradley is out for the rest of the season. All things being equal, the Heat are better. Once the Heat decide to turn on the defensive intensity they will eat Boston up. Philly was able to eat them up, but they were not nearly as good at the Heat can be. If Bosh were healthy, I would go with Heat in 5. Since he is not, I'm going Heat in 6.
Basketball is not that hard to figure out mostly because basketball is a sport not left up to chance, barring injuries to key players. Look at hockey, football, and baseball; the best team does not necessarily win. In baseball, the World Series Champion Saint Louis Cardinals had the worst record of any playoff team, but won it all. The Superbowl Champion New York [football] Giants were one botched wide open touchdown pass away from missing the playoffs entirely. In this year's Stanley Cup Final, [my] L.A. Kings is an 8-seed while their opponent, the New Jersey Devils, is a 6-seed. In the NBA, the best team wins. Period. There are anomalies every year in which an underdog team wins either because of a matchup problem (see 2007 first round matchup between Golden State and Dallas) or devastating injuries to a key player or players (see 2012 Philadelphia 76ers).
 |
| Giant = Heat; Little Guy = Pacers...Leave him alone! |
I almost forgot about the L.A. teams since they were dispatched a long time ago. I had to reassure myself that this was the same round. Both L.A. teams were simply outmatched; neither of them had no shot. The Lakers have to blow it up. They had three straight finals appearances winning 2 before regressing to a back-to-back drubbing in the second round. They got all they could out of this core group. The Clippers need backcourt help. Blake with hopefully develop, but they were embarrassed by Popovich.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(1) San Antonio v. (2) Oklahoma City
 |
| Spurs = Prime Ali or Washed up Ali? |
A true heavyweight match up. Neither of these teams are one of those "team of destiny" teams that made an improbable run. Neither of these teams benefitted from an injury to a key player on the opposing team. Neither of these teams benefitted from a crappy conference (the Clippers, Jazz, Lakers, and Mavericks were not as bad as both of these teams made them look). These are two teams that totally deserve to be in this spot. San Antonio is like an aging Muhammad Ali. The only question is will they be the wily Ali versus George Foreman or will they be the washed up Ali versus the young Larry Holmes. OKC is like a young Mike Tyson when he was champ at the young age of 20. When Mike was in in hey, everyone thought it was the beginning of the greatest reign ever (only now we know the end game). Almost surely, OKC will not end up like Tyson as they have a strong foundation of young stars and complimentary players; but this is the beginning of a reign of terror for opposing teams in the Western Conference, something I knew after last year's loss to Dallas in the Conference Finals.
 |
| Will OKC be baby champs...Like Young Mike? |
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(2) Heat v. (4) Celtics
This is too bad. It probably should have been Heat-Bulls. Nonetheless the Celtics managed to sneak through. Everyone is quick to think the Celtics are going to get thrashed due to their showing against the Sixers. Remember during their title run in 2008, they needed 7 games against the 8-seeded Hawks. Not saying they will win it all, but don't look at the last series. Familiarity will also help Boston, but they are hurt with Avery Bradley being injured. His on ball defense has to probably be the best in the league, seriously. He would have given D-Wade fits and just ate up Chalmers, who is a below average point guard to me. That would have forced LeBron to take on ball handling duties. I feel bad for Pierce who has to go against LeBron, who he can't handle at all simply because nobody can! If the Heat are making jumpers all series as Boston will lock down the paint defensively, then this will be a quick series even sans Bosh. However, they are not going to make them all series. We are going to see more of the same East Coast basketball with scores in the 70's late in the fourth quarter. This is a little hard. Both teams have a hard time scoring in the half court smoothly. Bosh looks like he won't be back as he has no timetable set for his return. Bradley is out for the rest of the season. All things being equal, the Heat are better. Once the Heat decide to turn on the defensive intensity they will eat Boston up. Philly was able to eat them up, but they were not nearly as good at the Heat can be. If Bosh were healthy, I would go with Heat in 5. Since he is not, I'm going Heat in 6.
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