The Most Wonder Time of the Year: The Conference Finals
Recap
I felt so bad for my boy from Brooklyn. We were texting last night during game six of the Indiana-New York game. He was a wreck as he was telling me he just could not watch the Knicks go down in disappointing fashion yet again. I felt his anguish radiating from my phone. The Knicks only chance in the series was to consistently defend and make their threes. The previous was something they could have consciously done while the latter is something that comes and goes. Relying on threes is tricky, but it can be done (see Orlando Magic of the late 2000s/early 2010s). I've been saying this for years, but Tyson Chandler is overrated. Some people really think he has the stuff to be a top center. He's slightly overrated defensively and gives you absolutely nothing on offense unless it is a lob or put-back dunk.
We knew the Sword of Damocles would fall upon Chicago at some point. They won game one and shook up Miami, who basically was sleepwalking for the previous month. Once Miami was awakened and realized they would have to actually try, they quickly dispatched the depleted and exhausted Bulls, who had to revert to being punks to even try to make it competitive. It was hopeless nonetheless.
OKC was basically toast before the series began. They had to rely on Ibaka being one of the "guys" with Durant. Ibaka is what I like to call a Super Role Player (see Lamar Odom, Shane Battier, Derek Fisher, Kawhi Leonard et al). He works best when he's an accessory and not one of the main guys. Same for Martin. Watching Durant was just like watching LeBron in his Cleveland years trying to pull his team to victory basically by himself. Things were always peachy for OKC as they never had to deal with a serious injury to either Durant or Westbrook. Durant, and Westbrook for that matter, saw how quickly things can get bleak when injuries mix with a roster that is not loaded.
Golden State looked like a team that lost its mojo as the series progressed. Popvich also outclassed the young coach of Golden State as well. By games four and five, Golden State was getting out ran and hustled. Curry and Thompson looked beat both physically and mentally. But this is part of the growing process. It takes time to realize that there is a difference between being prepared and thinking you are prepared. San Antonio has been around the block so many times. They knew how to work this part of the season while Golden State still has some growing to do.
Western Conference
(2) San Antonio vs. (5) Memphis
People tend to say "the NBA will be mad at small markets being in the finals." Well, I disagree with that a little bit. I would understand if the TV networks were disappointed. The NBA will get their TV money regardless of who is in finals and I'm pretty sure that's not going to significantly impact them in their next negotiations with TV networks for the next deal. This series will be a basketball purist's delight! I liken myself to purist to a large degree. I like dunks and stuff, but I really have an appreciation for the essance of the game even more than the flash. For example, I prefer John Stockton over Allen Iverson. In this series, we get two teams full of grit with very little flash. It will be a physical, probably low scoring, series. The main battle will be Duncan and Splitter versus Z-Bo and Gasol the Younger battle. We will likely see consecutive post entries by both teams which is unheard of in this era of the NBA. The side battles will be interesting too as Parker and Conley will go at it while sets of role players will go at it (Prince, Pondexter, Bayless, Authur, Allen, and Dooling versus Leonard, Diaw, Green, Bonner, Manu, and Joseph). I'm a little worried about San Antonio's frontcourt reserves having to possibly go against Z-Bo and Gasol when Duncan needs a break, but Popovich is great at adjustments as the series goes on (ask Golden State). Casual fans will yawn, but there will be lots of great team basketball being played. Memphis has sort of turned into the people's Western Conference champs, but San Antonio refuses to go away. Memphis wasn't that impressive against an undermanned OKC team, though they won in 5 games. Just about all of those games could have gone either way. I like San Antonio as they can score more freely than Memphis while San Antonio can defend nearly at the same level as them. Don't think Pop is not going to use their revenge card as a motivator as Memphis, and 8-seed, bounced San Antonio in the first round a couple years ago. I'm going San Antone in 6.
Eastern Conference
(1) Miami vs. (3) Indiana
There is one way Indiana can be a real stickler for Miami. Indiana must pound Miami on the boards, then pound them again. That is where Miami is most vulnerable. Indiana absolutely has to turn this into a brawl. They do not have enough fire power past their starting five to match Miami point for point in a liberated offensive game. Indiana basically goes 9 deep with Augustine, Hansborough, Mahinmi and Young; not a single player is one that can get buckets consistently or is a staunch, lockdown defender, though Young and Mahinmi are solid. Miami is hitting them with Allen, Cole, Miller, Lewis, Battier, and Birdman Birdman! All of those guys have specialties as either a shooter or defender. If Hibbert could somehow become at least Patrick Ewing, this could be very interesting. My guess is that Bosh is going to start at center along with Haslem at the four. West and Hibbert need to bludgeon them. Even if George plays out of his mind, he is only going cancel LeBron out at best. We tend to forget Miami is really a defensive oriented team. Their relentless pressure defense, a la the 90s Bulls teams, causes turnovers and uncomfortable shots. Indiana has to not only pound them in the low post offensively, but they need to convert. Otherwise, you are asking Hibbert to beat Bosh and Birdman Birdman down the floor defensively a lot, which could be a problem. Lots of people are talking themselves into Indiana possibly beating Miami, but I just don't see it, even while I think Indiana has learned from last year's series not to start pounding their chests if they win a couple games, pissing LeBron, Wade, and company off. Miami in 5.
I felt so bad for my boy from Brooklyn. We were texting last night during game six of the Indiana-New York game. He was a wreck as he was telling me he just could not watch the Knicks go down in disappointing fashion yet again. I felt his anguish radiating from my phone. The Knicks only chance in the series was to consistently defend and make their threes. The previous was something they could have consciously done while the latter is something that comes and goes. Relying on threes is tricky, but it can be done (see Orlando Magic of the late 2000s/early 2010s). I've been saying this for years, but Tyson Chandler is overrated. Some people really think he has the stuff to be a top center. He's slightly overrated defensively and gives you absolutely nothing on offense unless it is a lob or put-back dunk.
We knew the Sword of Damocles would fall upon Chicago at some point. They won game one and shook up Miami, who basically was sleepwalking for the previous month. Once Miami was awakened and realized they would have to actually try, they quickly dispatched the depleted and exhausted Bulls, who had to revert to being punks to even try to make it competitive. It was hopeless nonetheless.
OKC was basically toast before the series began. They had to rely on Ibaka being one of the "guys" with Durant. Ibaka is what I like to call a Super Role Player (see Lamar Odom, Shane Battier, Derek Fisher, Kawhi Leonard et al). He works best when he's an accessory and not one of the main guys. Same for Martin. Watching Durant was just like watching LeBron in his Cleveland years trying to pull his team to victory basically by himself. Things were always peachy for OKC as they never had to deal with a serious injury to either Durant or Westbrook. Durant, and Westbrook for that matter, saw how quickly things can get bleak when injuries mix with a roster that is not loaded.
Golden State looked like a team that lost its mojo as the series progressed. Popvich also outclassed the young coach of Golden State as well. By games four and five, Golden State was getting out ran and hustled. Curry and Thompson looked beat both physically and mentally. But this is part of the growing process. It takes time to realize that there is a difference between being prepared and thinking you are prepared. San Antonio has been around the block so many times. They knew how to work this part of the season while Golden State still has some growing to do.
Western Conference
(2) San Antonio vs. (5) Memphis
People tend to say "the NBA will be mad at small markets being in the finals." Well, I disagree with that a little bit. I would understand if the TV networks were disappointed. The NBA will get their TV money regardless of who is in finals and I'm pretty sure that's not going to significantly impact them in their next negotiations with TV networks for the next deal. This series will be a basketball purist's delight! I liken myself to purist to a large degree. I like dunks and stuff, but I really have an appreciation for the essance of the game even more than the flash. For example, I prefer John Stockton over Allen Iverson. In this series, we get two teams full of grit with very little flash. It will be a physical, probably low scoring, series. The main battle will be Duncan and Splitter versus Z-Bo and Gasol the Younger battle. We will likely see consecutive post entries by both teams which is unheard of in this era of the NBA. The side battles will be interesting too as Parker and Conley will go at it while sets of role players will go at it (Prince, Pondexter, Bayless, Authur, Allen, and Dooling versus Leonard, Diaw, Green, Bonner, Manu, and Joseph). I'm a little worried about San Antonio's frontcourt reserves having to possibly go against Z-Bo and Gasol when Duncan needs a break, but Popovich is great at adjustments as the series goes on (ask Golden State). Casual fans will yawn, but there will be lots of great team basketball being played. Memphis has sort of turned into the people's Western Conference champs, but San Antonio refuses to go away. Memphis wasn't that impressive against an undermanned OKC team, though they won in 5 games. Just about all of those games could have gone either way. I like San Antonio as they can score more freely than Memphis while San Antonio can defend nearly at the same level as them. Don't think Pop is not going to use their revenge card as a motivator as Memphis, and 8-seed, bounced San Antonio in the first round a couple years ago. I'm going San Antone in 6.
Eastern Conference
(1) Miami vs. (3) Indiana
There is one way Indiana can be a real stickler for Miami. Indiana must pound Miami on the boards, then pound them again. That is where Miami is most vulnerable. Indiana absolutely has to turn this into a brawl. They do not have enough fire power past their starting five to match Miami point for point in a liberated offensive game. Indiana basically goes 9 deep with Augustine, Hansborough, Mahinmi and Young; not a single player is one that can get buckets consistently or is a staunch, lockdown defender, though Young and Mahinmi are solid. Miami is hitting them with Allen, Cole, Miller, Lewis, Battier, and Birdman Birdman! All of those guys have specialties as either a shooter or defender. If Hibbert could somehow become at least Patrick Ewing, this could be very interesting. My guess is that Bosh is going to start at center along with Haslem at the four. West and Hibbert need to bludgeon them. Even if George plays out of his mind, he is only going cancel LeBron out at best. We tend to forget Miami is really a defensive oriented team. Their relentless pressure defense, a la the 90s Bulls teams, causes turnovers and uncomfortable shots. Indiana has to not only pound them in the low post offensively, but they need to convert. Otherwise, you are asking Hibbert to beat Bosh and Birdman Birdman down the floor defensively a lot, which could be a problem. Lots of people are talking themselves into Indiana possibly beating Miami, but I just don't see it, even while I think Indiana has learned from last year's series not to start pounding their chests if they win a couple games, pissing LeBron, Wade, and company off. Miami in 5.
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