The Most Wonderful Time of the Year: Dynasty Edition
Recap
I was very surprised at all of the love Memphis received as they beat a team lead by a suspect coach in the first round (Los Angeles Clippers) and an obviously wounded team in the second round (Oklahoma City). Memphis does not score a lot and San Antonio is too good for teams with any glaring weaknesses. San Antonio is like the Bernard Hopkins of the NBA: they are not going to be spectacular, but they sure as hell will out-execution other teams. I didn't think 4 games would do it, more like 5 or 6, but San Antonio won the 1 or 2 swing games causing a sweep.
Game 7 of Heat-Pacers was very interesting. I agreed with Shaq during TNT's Inside the NBA broadcast. He said watching the mood of the Heat during the pre-game compared to that of the Pacers' was a clear indication of who was probably going to win the game. Miami was relaxed, dancing, smiling, and cheering each other on. In other words, been here done this. Indiana, meanwhile, had their "game faces" on and looked very uptight. I noticed it when watching the moments right before tip-off. There uptightness was very apparent as they persisted in turning the ball over in the first half. Bosh and Wade finally came to life even if they didn't have great games by their standards. They were at least active, energetic, and acted like they gave a shit. Spo deserves some credit as they decided to hit Hibbert with swarming double an even triple teams. I also realized he probably put Ray Allen on Paul George to bait them into going to George rather than Hibbert and West, who were virtually unstoppable on the block. Hibbert has to be ready for the next step with the great bigs, which is learning how to manipulate the help defense and punishing them with passing whenever extra defenders are sent his way. That is part of the reason why you hardly ever see Duncan get doubled as he will torch defenses with his manipulation and passing. However, I'm not as big on Hibbert as a lot of people; it was just that Miami is a small team. But we'll see. Maybe this was a harbinger for great things
to come.
The Dynasties
(E1) Miami Heat vs. (W2) San Antonio Spurs
The NBA works along these lines: best overall player with the best supporting cast wins. It's not like football where often wildcard teams win it all. It's not like hockey when you saw an 8-seed win the championship last year. It's not like baseball where the worst team to make the playoffs gets hot and wins it all. No. As long as a team has the best player and is surrounded with a great supporting cast, they will win or be near the championship year in and year out. Thus, you get this constant phenomenon in the NBA.
The Lakers were the team of the 80s with Boston, Philly, and Detroit staking a little claim. Nonetheless, the Bulls took the throne from the Lakers. The Bulls took it for 3 years and abdicated for 2 years (had Jordan stayed, they would not have won any titles those years anyway and may not have won any more after that, but that's a different post...) before reclaiming it with 3 more titles. After the Bulls vacated the throne, the Spurs and Lakers took claim combining for 9 of the next 12 (5 for LA and 4 for SA), which is insane.
The Heat are an emerging dynasty with the Spurs being near the end of theirs as the Laker dynasty has finally just about died after 3 years of declining results. We saw M.J. and the Bulls wipe out Magic's Lakers, or what was left of them. Jordan walked away while Hakeem led a mini-dynastic run. After M.J. and the Bulls departed for good, Kobe, Shaq, Duncan, and Parker took over. What's interesting is that LeBron has a chance to do to Duncan what M.J. did to Magic; he can lead the Heat to being the undisputed reigning dynasty while putting down the leader of the previous dynasty.
We don't have much to go on as their regular season match-ups were trivialized by each team trotting their ghost teams out there, causing San Antonio to be fined. Miami will be thrilled to not have to deal with the loads of Hibbert and West. Duncan and Splitter will be rough, but they are not as bruising as Indy's bash brothers. San Antonio is slightly more perimeter based with Parker leading the charge as Duncan has gotten older, which could be bad news for them. Playing Miami in a perimeter competition is not a good idea (see 2012 Oklahoma City Thunder). San Antonio would need to pound them inside, but Duncan cannot be a horse for 40 minutes like he used to; his minutes have to be heavily monitored if he is to be highly effective late in games. Miami is long, fast, and rangy on the perimeter and can defend the pick and roll very well, which is what Parker wants to do. San Antonio could light up Miami, however, if they remain patient and move the ball. If they move the ball enough, Miami's rotation often falls apart after a few passes and there could be wide open 3s to be had.
San Antonio is probably my favorite team to watch as sort of a basketball purist, but this might be a bad matchup for them if they are too perimeter-based. I think LeBron does M.J. while Duncan has to be Magic. I see the Heat in 6 (I complain about this every year, but too bad the finals use the damned 2-3-2 format. This game 6 and the whole series would be more interesting as this game would have been in San Antonio rather than in Miami, who has the home court advantage).
I was very surprised at all of the love Memphis received as they beat a team lead by a suspect coach in the first round (Los Angeles Clippers) and an obviously wounded team in the second round (Oklahoma City). Memphis does not score a lot and San Antonio is too good for teams with any glaring weaknesses. San Antonio is like the Bernard Hopkins of the NBA: they are not going to be spectacular, but they sure as hell will out-execution other teams. I didn't think 4 games would do it, more like 5 or 6, but San Antonio won the 1 or 2 swing games causing a sweep.
Game 7 of Heat-Pacers was very interesting. I agreed with Shaq during TNT's Inside the NBA broadcast. He said watching the mood of the Heat during the pre-game compared to that of the Pacers' was a clear indication of who was probably going to win the game. Miami was relaxed, dancing, smiling, and cheering each other on. In other words, been here done this. Indiana, meanwhile, had their "game faces" on and looked very uptight. I noticed it when watching the moments right before tip-off. There uptightness was very apparent as they persisted in turning the ball over in the first half. Bosh and Wade finally came to life even if they didn't have great games by their standards. They were at least active, energetic, and acted like they gave a shit. Spo deserves some credit as they decided to hit Hibbert with swarming double an even triple teams. I also realized he probably put Ray Allen on Paul George to bait them into going to George rather than Hibbert and West, who were virtually unstoppable on the block. Hibbert has to be ready for the next step with the great bigs, which is learning how to manipulate the help defense and punishing them with passing whenever extra defenders are sent his way. That is part of the reason why you hardly ever see Duncan get doubled as he will torch defenses with his manipulation and passing. However, I'm not as big on Hibbert as a lot of people; it was just that Miami is a small team. But we'll see. Maybe this was a harbinger for great things to come.
The Dynasties
(E1) Miami Heat vs. (W2) San Antonio Spurs
The NBA works along these lines: best overall player with the best supporting cast wins. It's not like football where often wildcard teams win it all. It's not like hockey when you saw an 8-seed win the championship last year. It's not like baseball where the worst team to make the playoffs gets hot and wins it all. No. As long as a team has the best player and is surrounded with a great supporting cast, they will win or be near the championship year in and year out. Thus, you get this constant phenomenon in the NBA.
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| The Spurs starting five in the first regular season match-up. |
San Antonio is probably my favorite team to watch as sort of a basketball purist, but this might be a bad matchup for them if they are too perimeter-based. I think LeBron does M.J. while Duncan has to be Magic. I see the Heat in 6 (I complain about this every year, but too bad the finals use the damned 2-3-2 format. This game 6 and the whole series would be more interesting as this game would have been in San Antonio rather than in Miami, who has the home court advantage).
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